The cloud of a political showdown between the red shirts and the government and its backers, looms over us. It is understandable then that the layman feels helpless and fears bloodshed, anarchy, coup, civil war, economic ruin - or all of the above at this stage.

The Southeast Asian Press Alliance (SEAPA) expresses grave concern over the Thai military's attempts to suppress the news coverage of its deportation of 4,000 Hmong refugees from their camp in Thailand's northern province of Petchabun in December 2009.

On 20th January (or in just 8 working days) the end of the “permission to stay and work in Thailand for one year, pending deportation” for 61, 543 Burmese, Cambodian and Laotian migrants who “illegally” entered the country will arrive. As the first migrant work permit renewal deadline of the year it is somewhat different to past deadlines however. For if any of these workers refuse to go through the Royal Thai Government’s (RTG) Nationality Verification (NV) process, policy announcements suggest they will be deported. Whether deportation starts then or on 28th February (the “final” deadline to agree to NV or be deported for the other million or so registered migrants whose work permits expire on that day) remains unclear. 

Marwaan Macan-Markar, president of the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand, has denied being forced by the government to withdraw permission for the red shirts to hold a symposium at the clubhouse.

What is certain about the upcoming major political protest by the red-shirt Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) members is the political uncertainty it will engender. Their announced goal is to finally dislodge from power the Abhisit Vejjajiva government, which they deem as not legitimate, after their failed major attempt in April 2009. Asking top DAAD leaders about the likelihood of achieving their objective this time is not likely to gain accurate answers as whatever they say will be premeditated and calculated.