For opponents of the People's Alliance for Democracy, it certainly is a breath of fresh air that the PAD will no longer be out on the streets in such an active fashion as they were in the past. This is undoubtedly a plus for the country's overall political climate.
At least for the foreign and local investment communities, who abhor unstable and unpredictable extra-parliamentary practices leading to airport takeovers and Government House invasions, the formation of a PAD party is very much welcome.
Yet what this yellow-clad movement has been able to accomplish in the past is indeed proof that their leadership and organisation cannot be underestimated. For our evolving parliamentary system, the PAD will be a force. They have two influential media outlets in hand - ASTV (quasi-legal regional cable/internet television) and http://www.manager.co.th which is the most popular news website in the history of the Kingdom.
Through these media outlets, and and perhaps a supporting cast of newspapers and websites, the PAD - whatever it decides to name itself - will be able to campaign vigorously and effectively. Because of this, expect them to garner quite a popular mass following in particular provinces.
For the short term the PAD's party base will eat into those of the ruling Democrats. Long-term, things are still unpredictable.
If you look at Chamlong Srimuang's Palang Dharma (Power of Dharma) party back when he formed and ran it, they tapped into the anti-Democrat sentiment in the capital. The polarised political climate in the city of Bangkok nowadays is, however, much different from how it was in the days when the then green party was able to capture 90% of the district seats in Bangkok. The anti-Democrat vote in Bangkok is unquestionably anti-PAD as well. Most, if not all, of their votes will go to Puea Thai party.
You'd find some anti-PAD, pro-Democrat elements, but you'll never find an anti-Democrat, pro-PAD - that kind of self-conflicting political preference is non-existent.
The PAD basically captures the non-Democrat, Sondhi Limthongkul-loving, anti-Thaksin Shinawatra base; this is a minuscule base at this moment for the city. Though the PAD's ways could grow on you, their antics in the past do not necessarily help. Do not expect the views of the PAD - ultra right-winged politically and ultra left-winged economically - to resonate on the campaign trail immediately.
A large Democrat base in the city may have at some point found themselves disapproving of Thaksin's politically monopolistic tendencies, but Bangkokians are not about to be so receptive to an unreasonable set of labour union activists, formerly bankrupt media manipulators, heart-broken academics, mass-mobilising movers, and ostracised failed politicians.
To sum up, the yellow party will definitely be a strong additional colour to the campaign scene. Unfortunately, it will not galvanise voting support so quickly as to replace the Democrats.
On to the front of policy implications. Believe me, unlike how some in the international journalist community and mainstream pockets of academia mistakenly describe the divergence of Thailand's divide over the past five years, the PAD's popularity will be (just like it has been) cross-provincial and cross-income class. Its popularity is not with "educated elites" or "Bangkokians" or "Democrat-controlled South" or "true royalists" or "conservative circles." Its popularity is with those who fervently and dogmatically follow the information-manipulating catalysts that are http://www.manager.co.th and ASTV.
To answer everyone's question: the new PAD party will be popular in those parts of the country where the penetration rate for internet access is high and where ASTV is installed, on the condition that a credulous audience tunes in each day and night.
From a media perspective, ASTV and http://www.manager.co.th are the two biggest threats to all other political parties, who are not as media-savvy. If these Sondhi-controlled limbs can be cut off, the PAD party's popularity would be immensely lessened. In the long-term, the goal of creating a communist-like party - fashioned clandestinely as the royalist-yellow party - will not be reached.
To be less superficial, however, you must understand the kind of policies that may be proposed by the PAD once it begins to draft a political platform. Their unwritten party manifesto looks to have Leninist leanings, stripped of the anti-monarchic aspects of the communist ideals. To further the point and be clearer, this is a pro-monarchist yet economically left-leaning organisation. It is pro-monarchist for the sake of political survivability in the medium term, which means that they value Thais' loyalty to royal institutions, and that over the next 5 to 10 years they will opt to use that as a campaign launch-pad for their electoral support.
It is left-leaning economically so that it can cater to the underprivileged labourers, the poverty-stricken lower-middle working class, the unfunded politicians, the non-governmental organisation activists who have not been answered to or left neglected by successive "old politics"' administrations.
Such ideas as reforming land use, a la North Korea, into a type of commune, proven to have failed in China and the Soviet Union as well, would eventually surface. Other economic projects may include revamping the welfare system for retirees and pension holders, and all those living below the poverty line, massive increases of taxes levied on land holdings and other types of estates including inheritance, installing a much more ludicrous structure of progressive income taxation, etc.
Their platform could include furthering the goals embedded in a national ideology of self-reliance. This in turn may eventually justify the creation of a regime that justifies left-wing policy dictatorship from a politburo-like PAD party governing committee (voted in only by its "People's Congress").
You can certainly expect campaign arguments derived from concepts of collective consciousness and the superiority of the collective over the individual, with appeals to the politically conservative and ultra-nationalistic base. Citations of "the Juche Idea" will be a leitmotif in the PAD's final political execution phase.
Originally described as a creative application of Marxism-Leninism in the national context, the North Korean application of "juche" (spirit of self-reliance) became a malleable philosophy that was re-interpreted from time to time by the Kim Il Sung/Kim Jong Il regime as its ideological needs altered. In the end it was used by the head of state as a "spiritual" underpinning for its authoritarian and abusive rule.
The PAD party's leadership, in terms of foreign policy, can be expected to clandestinely emphasise the core concept of "juche," which is the ability to act independently without regard to outside interference. With the PAD party at the helm, the country can no doubt prepare itself for anti-globalised practices in the economic portfolios. Policies like compulsory licensing and others - accepted by particular pockets of the uninformed anti-globalisation community and cheered on by socialist-leaning organisations - would, over time, become the norm.
From what has been described here you can probably predict on your own as to how the PAD will find its support base. Some of the mentioned points actually do sound novel and attractive: such as poor-protecting, socially-conscious, anti-money politics and welfare-oriented types of policies. Nonetheless, the problem with such a potentially single-party system with a rallying base centred around an always pro-royalist and constantly nationalistic core will, inevitably corrupt itself.
For the sake of our present structured parliamentary system under constitutional monarchy, I am hoping that the political party assembled by the PAD leadership will take part only in the next governing coalition and thereafter fade away.
That would require this yellow-shirt party to capture at least 10 or 20 seats, with some coming from the Northeast, the South and the Central Region. It would also require that they aptly manoeuvre post-election to juggle for cabinet positions.
Yet, this is not how I picture things developing.
Mr Sondhi Limthongkul's clan will indeed capture about 10 to 20 MP seats nationwide, either through the district or party-list format, with the latter being more likely. They will at first portray themselves as being anti-corruption by taking the moral high ground of not desiring the join the Democrat/Bhumjaithai parties-led coalition. Over time, however, the PAD will galvanise a massive, more-than-cult following through its media outlets by continuing to tap into the anti-corrupt politicians sentiment in the country. Here Manager.co.th and ASTV will play the key roles.
From a small opposition leading party, the yellow-shirt cult will transform into a formidable contender to run Operation Thailand. The answer to everyone's question as to whether or not members of the PAD leadership will take part in the new cabinet after the next general election, is clearly no. The real threat, however, is down the road when the PAD is able to capture a large, more mass-oriented following (imagine Palang Dharma times 5 at least). At that point they can turn their already assembled People's Congress into a truly alternative policy-making platform that can facilitate regime capitulation.
At an even more opportune moment, with the lighting switch of a military coup d'etat, or better yet, an armed popular uprising against those "uncleansable evil corrupt politicians," the PAD's People's Congress will finally fulfil its ordained role. Which is, of course, to immediately serve as a transitional parliament in order to draft a revolutionarily draconian constitution that will shame even the drafters of the current 2550 B E one.
Consequently the PAD will achieve its goals of writing its "new politics" manifesto. The manifesto would be similar to Karl Marx's, modified to still contain the institution of the monarchy, and most of its related aspects, as it is only an adapted version. "New Politics" will possess every quality of socialist-oriented economic policies.
What, however, comprises a threat to national security and to the current governing structure of the Kingdom is rather the post- "new" constitutional platform of the "New Politics." The PAD only needs to capture a few seats to be effective in the lower house at this point. In participation with certain appointed and elected members of the upper house, the noises they make will slowly eat away - like drips of water on a stone - at the election-oriented parliamentary system in our democracy under constitutional monarchy. Their real goal of having a non-elected secretary-general leading a politburo emanating from a people's congress, is way beyond what the average person can currently discern. Yet, under the microscope of one who understands the reds' long struggle, there is certainly something lurking beneath the surface - even if the naked eye does not yet fathom the truths now masked by the facade of royalist colours.
Ten years from now, in hindsight, the red shirts may not necessarily have been Thailand's modern-day liberation of the proletariat.
* M L Nattakorn Devakula is a news analyst on "Newsline," NBT (Channel 11).
