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Three main possibilities: all out civil war-negotiation and amnesty-temporary victory for government

Right now, the heart of Bangkok has become a war zone. 

The noise of gunfire is deafening, soldiers are lining up and shooting to disperse protestors. The protesters flee in all directions, then respond by lighting homemade rockets, firecrackers, and aim their slingshots at the soldiers.

Today (14 May) the clashes between soldiers and the red shirts took place in many areas. The first of these was around Lumphini Park, Saladaeng intersection, and Wireless Road underneath the Thai-Belgium overpass. Then the clashes spread to Bon Kai intersection, the area in front of the Lumphini police station, Ratchaprarop and Pratunam. 

News came almost immediately of the rapidly increasing number of casualties. 

Nobody can say when the war in central Bangkok will end.

As night falls the tension increases. This crisis is deadlocked. 

Compounding the tension is the uprising of the red shirts in 15 provinces, in which the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situations (CRES) have extended a state of emergency. These are Chonburi, Nonthaburi, Samut Prakarn, Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya, Udonthani, Chaiyaphum, Khon Kaen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Sisaket, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Nan, Lampang and Nakhon Sawan. 

The flame of war in Bangkok is spreading to other provinces, amidst rumours that the red shirts are invading town halls and seizing Bangkok Bank branches. 

The reason for this latest bout of clashes is the failure of negotiation between the government and the red shirt leaders, and the refusal to accept the “road map.”

The red shirt leaders insisted that Deputy Prime Minister SuthepThaugsuban had to report to the police, not the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), to make himself accountable for the violence on April 10. When Suthep refused to do so, the red shirt leaders refused to accept the road map and urged their supporters to continue demonstrating. 

After that, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva revoked his offer of an election date on November 14, 2010. 

From that point onwards, the situation descended into full-blown crisis. 

The government’s own deadline, which forces the UDD to disband the protests in three days, or before May 17, intensified the crisis. The next day the Deputy PM’s Secretary-General Panithan Wattanayakorn, acting government spokesman, announced that there was as yet no clear deadline for the UDD to disband their protest in three days. 

What made the crisis worse was the assassination attempt on Seh Daeng, General Katthiya Sawasdipol, a hardcore UDD leader, on the night of April 13. The long-distance weapon used was most likely a sniper. 

The attempted assassination of a hardcore leader like Seh Daeng provoked the UDD into fury. Most critically, the red shirts’ demonstration is now lacking clear leadership. 

The red supporters have become a mob with no leader. They’ve broken from the main protest ground in Ratchaprasong, and have become embroiled in clashes with soldiers who are moving in to round them up. 

The situation is now critical!

The question is what is likely to happen in the next hours. What are the possibilities? 

The first possibility is a full-blown clash between the UDD and the military. As with April last year, and the events of April 10, 2010, the result will be multiple casualties among the red shirts and the military. 

This is a loss with no clear sense of an ending. 

If the fighting drags out, Bangkok will descend into civil war. The dark fog of war will spread from the capital to other provinces. 

The reason why the latest war in the heart of the city is so violent is that both the military and the UDD have learnt some lessons, and have each become better prepared. The military is more prepared than on previous occasions, whether on April 10, or April 22, and 28. 

At the same time the red shirts have been accumulating their weapons, and their sense of anger is propelling them to fight “to the death.” Most importantly, the UDD has a sufficiently endowed “feeder,” which means they can continue to fightfor a long time. 

This prospect is the most pessimistic of the three. If Thailand descends into this situation for a prolonged period, the country will be destroyed. 

The second possibility is that the two sides return to negotiation, having both been through heavy fighting and suffered major casualties. Abhisit himself has said that he hasn’t closed the door to further negotiations. 

Meantime, ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has issued a statement via his legal advisor Noppadon Pattama, calling for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to adopt the following four measures: 

1. Stop the crackdown on demonstrators by immediately withdrawing soldiers and police, and terminating the use of heavy war weapons. 

2. Immediately revoke the state of emergency in every province declared.   

3. Immediately return to negotiation with the protestors to reach a peaceful resolution. 

4. Participate in seeking genuine solutions for reconciliation, for the sake of democracy, justice and progress in the country. 

In this scenario, amidst the wreckage and the death toll, it may be necessary to bring the leader of the “dove” strand of the UDD, Veera Musikapong, back to the negotiating table. This time the negotiation would have to be on different terms: unlike the last time, neither side can drag their feet nor use deceptive tactics. They must stick firmly to the conditions agreed. 

But the stumbling block remains the red shirts’ demand for amnesty for all its leaders. This would be like wiping the slate clean. If the government can concede this much, a new road map looks possible. 

The third possibility is a victory for the government, in the sense that the military succeeds in capturing all the hardcore red leaders. And they succeed in separating women and children from the violent groups, then in dispersing the demonstration at Ratchaprasong. 

But this will only be a temporary victory, because the fighting will be transformed into a protracted underground struggle taking place both inside and outside Bangkok, with features similar to October 6, 1976. 

After that the government may dissolve parliament, with Abhisit announcing his retirement from politics. He and his family may move to another country. 

Any government that comes into power after the next election may then grant amnesty dating back to recent political cases, including the PAD’s seizure of government house and the airport, as well as the more recent losses. The aim would be to encourage national reconciliation. 

These are the three main prospects in a volatile situation that is changing daily. What’s worth remarking on is the fact that all sides are still waiting for the “miracle” from above!!!

Translated by May Adadol Ingawanij

Source: 
<p> http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1273837749&amp;grpid=10&amp;catid=01 </p>

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