(A shortened version by Prachatai English)

After the Saturday clashes, the red shirts are confident that they have gained the upper hand over the government; so they do not bother to negotiate or give a thought for the common good.  They have only one goal: seizing the country, changing the form of government and overthrowing the monarchy.

It has now become clear to the eyes of the world that what the red shirts have been after so far is not a real democracy, but a rebellion against the kingdom through armed force.

Any country which wishes to become civilized has to face and get past this kind of situation.

During 1861-1865, the Americans shed blood in the civil war, and had to sacrifice over 600,000 lives before peace could be reached.

During 1918-1922, Lenin led the change in Russia to a communist regime, claiming that once social classes were destroyed, the people would be equal and escape poverty.  It turned out to be untrue.  Most people are still poor and famished, if not more so.  Over 9 million Russians died during the false class war.

During 1936-1939, Spain was similar to Thailand now.  Some of the Spanish defended democracy, while others believed that a ‘dictatorial democracy in the style of the Thaksin regime’ was better.  Over 500,000 were killed.

More recently, Somalia, since 1990s, has been torn and tattered.  Over 500,000 Somalians have been killed.

Is Thailand now entering a civil war?  I find no reason to say no.

Although Thai people have been distressed by the performances of the government and the security forces on Saturday, most of them still support PM Abhisit.

Parliament can be dissolved, but not now or in 15 days.  Talks should be held to find an appropriate timeframe; for example, after the budget for fiscal year 2011 is passed.

Many issues that the red shirts have raised and claimed to be class problems should be heeded for a total reform of the country.  All sides must join the reform process, and the Phrais will have their say equally, not allowing politicians to claim power on their behalf as happens.  This is the way to step aside from civil war.

However, such a path is now nowhere in sight, because the red shirts are confident of victory; besides, some of them fight and get rich (from Thaksin’s pocket).  Emboldened by the support of the armed band behind them, they will move further.

Thaksin has now been reduced to a mere tool used by a subversive movement against the throne.  Once the target of the old-time communists is within reach, with Thaksin nearly finished, he will no longer be needed to fool northern and northeastern people into becoming foot soldiers in the rebel force whose strings are being pulled mostly by southerners.

This is what the government and the security forces must make clear to themselves in order to strike at the right point.  At least Abhisit and the military must stop their conflict and reach a common understanding that:
- This is not an assembly, but a rebellion with peasants being fooled and exploited;
- There is a deadly-armed force which has killed soldiers who acted kindly to the people;
- These rebels do not heed any law, and are now seeking to further the front line by seizing public premises all over the country;
- There are spies in the military who keep passing information to the rebels;
- Abhisit cannot give in now; no House dissolution and no resignation;
- If he gives in, it means giving the country to the rebels, and the monarchy destroyed;
- The peasants must not be suppressed or killed but will have to be separated from the rebels who must be suppressed or killed;
- This is not a peaceful assembly according to the constitution, so its suppression is not the duty of the PM, but of the military; Martial Law is not excessive.

But, no coup!

By 15 April, it will be known how Abhisit, Anupong and Prayuth will survive the civil war and how they will be remembered in history.

Note: Plaew See-ngern is the pen name of Roj Ngamman, a veteran journalist and owner of the anti-Thaksin, Thai-language daily Thai Post.